Treasury expects to borrow $618 billion in October–December quarter

The U.S. Department of the Treasury on Monday announced its estimates for how much it will borrow from the public over the next two quarters. It expects to borrow $618 billion from October through December 2026 and $800 billion from January through March 2027.

The figures cover what Treasury calls privately-held net marketable borrowing. This is borrowing through tradable Treasury securities, measured after certain rollovers of securities held in the SOMA are excluded. Treasury said the measure includes financing required because of SOMA redemptions.

Treasury privately-held net marketable borrowing and cash balances
Quarter	Net borrowing	End-of-quarter cash
July–September 2026 (actual)	$742 billion	$984 billion
October–December 2026 (estimate)	$618 billion	$850 billion
January–March 2027 (estimate)	$800 billion	$1.000 trillion

Treasury privately-held net marketable borrowing and cash balances

Quarter

Net borrowing

End-of-quarter cash

July–September 2026 (actual)

$742 billion

$984 billion

October–December 2026 (estimate)

$618 billion

$850 billion

January–March 2027 (estimate)

$800 billion

$1.000 trillion

For the October–December quarter, Treasury assumed a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December. The $618 billion estimate is $10 billion lower than the figure announced in August 2026. Treasury said the drop came mainly from a higher-than-assumed cash balance at the start of the quarter, partly offset by lower projected net cash flows.

Treasury said that without the effect of the higher starting cash balance, the current quarter’s borrowing estimate would be $24 billion higher than announced in August. Its table shows the quarter opening with $984 billion in cash, compared with the $950 billion assumed in August.

For January through March 2027, Treasury assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $1.000 trillion. The department did not give a comparison with an earlier estimate for that quarter in the announcement.

Treasury also reported results for the July–September 2026 quarter. It borrowed $742 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with $984 billion in cash. In August, it had estimated borrowing of $739 billion and assumed an end-of-September cash balance of $950 billion.

Treasury said the higher borrowing came mainly from the higher-than-assumed ending cash balance, offset by higher net cash flows. It said that without the effect of that cash balance, actual borrowing was $30 billion lower than announced in August.

Treasury said additional financing details tied to its Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026.

Sources