Census Bureau updates estimates for 25 countries and areas

The U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday released new estimates, projections and related demographic figures extending to 2100 for 25 countries and areas, according to the agency. The update is part of the International Database, which the Census Bureau periodically revises as new data become available.

The release updates four U.S. island territories for the first time since 2017 and projects long‑term population decline tied to lower birth rates and continued net outflows. By 2100, the Census Bureau projects American Samoa will have 61% fewer people than in 2026, the U.S. Virgin Islands 41% fewer, Guam 38% fewer, and the Northern Mariana Islands 17% fewer. The agency reported fertility declines across all four, including a drop in the total fertility rate in American Samoa from 4.0 in 2000 to 2.1 in 2026, and in the Northern Mariana Islands from 3.3 to 2.0 in a decade. In 2026, net migration ranged from minus 4.8 per 1,000 in Guam to minus 25.1 in American Samoa. Out‑migration is projected to gradually lessen and reach zero by 2100, but current trends point to continued contraction over coming decades, the agency said.

Projected population decline by 2100 from 2026 levels
Territory	Projected change by 2100
American Samoa	−61%
U.S. Virgin Islands	−41%
Guam	−38%
Northern Mariana Islands	−17%

Projected population decline by 2100 from 2026 levels

Territory

Projected change by 2100

American Samoa

−61%

U.S. Virgin Islands

−41%

Guam

−38%

Northern Mariana Islands

−17%

The Census Bureau also incorporated new data for 21 countries, using recent censuses, surveys and administrative records. The update accounts for crisis‑related mortality in several places. In Turkey, the agency said the 2023 earthquake caused about 53,000 deaths and lifted the country’s total deaths by almost 7% versus 2022. In Libya, catastrophic flooding led to more than 13,000 deaths, which increased deaths in 2023 by 22% and cut life expectancy from 73.4 to 71.2 years, according to the release.

The agency adjusted HIV/AIDS assumptions in some countries. HIV prevalence fell below 1% between 2020 and 2024 in Benin, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali, leading the Census Bureau to remove the HIV/AIDS mortality element from those projections.

The release adds information for 16,638 subnational units comparable to states, counties and townships worldwide, and introduces improved mapping tools. The International Database provides population counts and growth by sex and each single year of age through 100 and older, and tracks components of change—deaths, births, and net international migration—for over 220 countries and areas.

The Census Bureau said International Database estimates and projections are available on its overview webpage and will be updated periodically as new data become available.

Sources