A very strong El Niño event is set to bring more extreme weather well into 2027, according to a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report released Monday. UN News said the report came ahead of crucial COP31 talks in Türkiye. El Niño is a climate pattern that releases heat from the ocean.
The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026 says the past 12 years are the warmest on record, and the past four years top that list. Global average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was about 1.47°C above the pre-industrial average. The report says that figure is expected to keep rising until the end of the year because of El Niño’s warming effect. El Niño is expected to be the strongest on record by December.
About 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases is absorbed by the ocean, according to the report. It says 2026 is on track to be the tenth straight year of record ocean warmth. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño does not add new heat to the planet. “It releases heat from the ocean, which is the warmest ever measured,” she said.
UN News said Saulo described El Niño as a risk multiplier. She said heatwaves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms are intensifying faster than historical baselines prepared people for.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “We have entered a new age of climate extremes.” He said those least responsible for climate change are suffering first and worst. He urged leaders to reduce emissions faster, speed up the move away from fossil fuels and deliver funds and protection that vulnerable countries need.
UN News listed several events from the year. In April, about 146.5 million people in India were exposed to an extreme heatwave, with temperatures reaching 47°C. Provisional estimates put excess deaths in Europe above 30,000 over the summer, including about 16,000 during the June 22-28 heatwave. In late August, a Himalayan glacier collapsed and caused a flash flood downstream that killed more than 1,300 people in Nepal.
The report also says sea levels are the highest on record and sea-surface temperatures set monthly records during 2026. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, which the report equates to about 1 millimeter of sea-level rise. Antarctic sea ice had its third-lowest winter peak on record, while the Arctic had its lowest or second lowest.
Greenhouse gas levels hit a new record in 2025 and kept rising in 2026, the report says. Carbon dioxide is up 53% since 1750, methane 167% and nitrous oxide 26%.
The report also says the World Health Organization has, for the first time, classified the expected health effects of El Niño as a health emergency. It says El Niño is already raising risks for agriculture, especially where food insecurity is high and farming depends on rainfall.
The final State of the Global Climate 2026 report is set to be issued in March 2027, according to UN News. The source did not give the date or exact location of the COP31 talks.